By Anusha Ondaatjie
March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Sri Lanka and the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam escalated fighting in recent months, creating a refugee population of more than 200,000 people, in a conflict that analysts said won't be won by either side.
``The two parties have decided to fight each other,'' said Rohan Gunaratna, head of terrorism research at Singapore's Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. ``Continuing the current spate of violence is not going to bring about a different outcome or change the status quo.''
The South Asian island nation of 20 million people is experiencing the worst fighting since a cease-fire was declared in 2002, a truce that helped the $26 billion economy post uninterrupted growth since then. Two rounds of peace talks in Geneva last year between the government and LTTE failed to make any progress.
Almost 4,000 people have been killed in violence in the past 15 months, compared with 130 deaths related to the conflict in the three previous years, the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, the Norwegian-led group that oversees the February 2002 cease-fire, said last month. The LTTE has been fighting for a separate homeland in the north and east for two decades, a conflict that has killed 60,000 people.
``Both parties have developed significant support to be able to recover from losses, but this type of warfare is protracted,'' Gunaratna said. ``What is needed is a negotiated settlement'' to the conflict.
Armed Forces
The Tamil Tigers are estimated to have 12,000 fighters, basing their headquarters at Kilinochchi in the northern Jaffna region. They also have a 4,000-strong naval force, known as the Sea Tigers.
Sri Lanka's army deploys about 155,000 soldiers in operations against the rebels and has stepped up air force attacks in recent months.
Their forces are separated by a 15 kilometer (9-mile) so- called line of control in the Jaffna peninsula where they occupy forward defense posts as little as 50 meters to 600 meters apart. There is no line of separation in the east where the two sides regularly cross areas dominated by each other.
The LTTE, classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S., the European Union and India, accused the government of trying to impose a military solution after the army captured 16 rebel bases in the northeast since January and began offensives recently near the eastern port of Batticaloa.
The government and Tamil Tigers ``do think engaging in hostilities gives them an advantage in negotiations,'' said Sanjana Hattotuwa, senior researcher at the Center for Policy Alternatives, a Colombo-based independent body. ``They aren't interested in peace talks.''
Rebel Faction
Tamil Tigers say the military is supporting a breakaway rebel faction known as the Karuna group, an allegation the army denies. The splinter group takes its name from Colonel Karuna, a former LTTE commander in the island's east, who in March 2004 broke away from the main command in the north.
``Karuna's departure was a major debacle to the LTTE in the east, but it will be a stretch for the government to think they can liberate Jaffna using Karuna,'' said Hattotuwa.
The U.S., EU, Japan and Norway, the leading international donors to Sri Lanka, have repeatedly asked the government and LTTE to resume peace negotiations.
While the military has gained ground in the island's east, government forces suffered defeats in the north, including the loss of at least 74 soldiers in battles in the Jaffna peninsula on Oct. 11. Rebels have struck with suicide bombings, including the deadliest attack in the civil war that killed about 100 sailors on Oct. 16 near Colombo.
Displaced People
An estimated 600,000 people remain cut off in the Jaffna region by fighting that began last August, Unicef, the UN Children's Fund, said this month in a report. Clashes in the country in the past six months forced as many as 200,000 civilians from their homes, the UN said.
Sri Lanka last week acknowledged that fighting around Batticaloa this month created an exodus of more than 52,000 people and a ``serious problem'' for the authorities.
Sri Lanka asked India last week to help monitor vessels using sea lanes between the countries, in a move to protect Indian fishing boats and stop LTTE arms smuggling operations.
``In the case of increasing surveillance, the LTTE will very much be choked.'' said N. Manoharan, senior research fellow at the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. ``The LTTE have to keep their morale high, and that is also going to be affected.''
Sri Lanka's President Mahinda Rajapaksa has asked political parties to produce a new plan on giving some powers to the Tamil community to try to bring an end to the conflict. The LTTE wants an interim self-government established in areas it controls in the north and east before a peace settlement is reached.
To contact the reporter on this story: Anusha Ondaatjie in Colombo at anushao@bloomberg.net
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